Indonesia: Is it possible?

World Bank (WB) announched global economy growth 2,4 percent in 2015 or 0,6 percent below its projection on early 2015. According to WB on global economic prospects, global growth is projected to reach 2,9 percent in 2016.

What about Indonesia?

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Indonesia published last week. In the fourth quarter last year, goverment spending driven economy expanded more than 5 percent. For full year of 2015, Indonesia grew 4,7 percent or below 0,5 percent compare with the target, but it still becomes one of the largest roobust economy beside China and India. Indonesia was targetting GDP grow 5,3 percent this year. Is it possible?

Top leader from around the world gathered in Davos to attend World Economic Forum. In Economic terms, China and Commodities are some of the key themes for this year’ conference. Still fresh on our mind when China devalued its currency to address slowing growth. End of 2015, Central bank of China cut renmimbi by about 1,6 percent againts U.S dollar to help exports. Export has been major component supporting China economic growth. Based on WB data, export of goods and services contribute 22.6 percent of GDP in 2014, consistently decreased compared to last three year which 23.3 percent in 2013, 24.2 percent in 2012 and 25.5 percent  in 2011. Indeed, one of the quickest way to help chinese export by devaluating its currency to make their goods chaeper on the world market. In the other hand, it is going to be a new challenge for Chinese trading partners beside commodities prices and U.S. renormalization of a monetary policy.

Statista shows us the China gross rate from 2010 and make some forcasting until 2020.

Chart above shows us that China economy has been slowing down. In addition, the panic due to downtrend in real economy spread to Chinese financial market. Shanghai Composite Index dropped by more than 20 percent with twice stock trading suspensions as a result of stock price plunged more than 7 percent in a day trading during January to mid-February 2016.

The economy and financial market turnmoil in China extent almost to all over the world. As we know, since China become the world largest commodities consumer, most of commodity exporter countries (including Indonesia) will be relatively influenced by China.

Commodities will be another challange for global ecomony in Red Fire Monkey Year. Crude oil price tumbled below $28 per barrel today, reach 11-year lows. WB forcast for crude oil is $37 per barrel in 2016, down from $51 per barrel in its October projections.

Plunge in oil is having deflationary effects on the entire commodity sector. Coal price have fallen to below $50 per tonne for first time since before the global financial crisis 2008, palm oil traded at an average of $614 per ton in 2015, down 25 percent from an average $818 per ton in 2014, rubber price have dropped to an eight-year low of about Rs 100 per kg.

The decline in commodities prices and slowdown in China economy are frightening us, but we need to keep optimist. Just for an update and alert, latest commodity prices published by World Bank. In January 2016, energy prices slumped by 15,3 percent.

The wall street may has a credo “what ini January, as a year goes by” but I believe Indonesia can achieve the GDP target growth by 5.3 percent this year if government can push public capital spending by more than 30 percent in the first quarter. Last but not least, government need to focus on maintaining stability, preventing radicalism and forest fires. Accoding to World Bank quarterly report, forest fires was effected by an economic and environmentally losses estimated IDR 221 trillion (1.9 percent of GDP) or double the amount of  spent on recontruction after the 2004 tsunami in Aceh.

Kalidoni Palembang: February 10, 2016.

Jakarta Bomb and Investor Psychology

At least seven people killed and unknown injured in Indonesia capital attacks on Thursday. The attacks cause panic. Yes panic, not only in Sarinah central business district and Jakarta but also spread to investor in stock market. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) opened in negative territory, along with international market. The U.S. Stock market slumped due to economic slowdown in China. DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 dropped by more than 2 percent yesterday.

Before we go over the specific, let’s take a more general look at stock movement on chart below.



The JCI eroded 0.7 percent to 4.492 at opening session. The Indonesia stock market continue declining reached 4.456 after bombing blasted at 10.40 a.m. Investor psychology shifted from unemotional, in which refer to capital market prices to equal the rational present value of expected future cash flows or in other word put fundamental analysis on top of standard approach to emotional investor that hard to be formulized by economic mathemathics model.

Investors’ attention move from China economic downtrend to herd behavior. Based on herd behavior in financial market: a review by Bikhchandani and Sharma stated investor tend to imitate others. They must be aware of and be influenced by others’ actions. Investor also can change their decision from not investing to making the investment or from not selling to selling their stocks anytime if they see most people to do so, whereas the financial company’ ratios had not changed. Briefly, investor rule out the role of fundamentals condition/ analysis at that moment. The JCI rebounded after Indonesia central bank announced an intereset rate cut by 25 basis point to 7.25 percent. Finally JCI closed at 4.513 higher than opening session which opened at 4.492.

To end up this, I remember what Baker and Wurgler (2007) written about investor sentiment in stock market. Real investors and markets are too complicated to be neatly summarized by a few selected biases and trading frictions. Centainly, both fundamental and investor’ psychology (behavioral finance) deserve continue research.

Palembang. January 15, 2016.

Data Harian IHSG dan JII

Data harian Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) sejak pertama tercatat sampai 30 Desember 2015.

Sumber data dari kantor Bursa Efek Indonesia.

Jakarta Islamic Index (JII)

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) atau Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG)

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) atau Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG)


IHSG dan JII sejak awal plus Chart

Terima kasih untuk Mas Early Saputra perwakilan BEI Palembang.


Note: Bagi teman-teman yang memerlukan data ini, silahkan di download. Terima kasih.


What Drives the Indonesian Stock Market?

Bursa Efek dibuka kembali pada 10 Agustus 1977 ditandai dengan go publik PT Semen Cibinong sebagai emiten pertama. Secara historis, pasar modal telah hadir jauh sebelum Indonesia merdeka. Pasar modal atau bursa efek telah hadir sejak jaman kolonial Belanda dan tepatnya pada tahun 1912 di Batavia. Pasar modal ketika itu didirikan oleh pemerintah Hindia Belanda untuk kepentingan pemerintah kolonial Belanda. Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie (VOC) merupakan perusahaan pertama yang mengeluarkan sistem pembagian saham yang didirikan tanggal 20 Maret 1602 Setelah itu pasar modal terus berkembang di seluruh dunia. Menurut Sanjeev Sanyal, a global strategist with Deutsche Bank, total kapitalisasi pasar global diperkirakan 378 persen dibandingkan total GDP dunia.

Bursa Indonesia mulai berkembang tahun 1983, waktu itu indeks ditetapkan dengan nilai dasar 100 dan saham tercatat pada saat itu berjumlah 13 saham. Hari ini per 29 Desember 2015, 32 tahun setelah pasar modal Indonesia jumlah saham yang tercatat sebanyak 525 emiten atau tumbuh lebih dari 3000 kali.

Pertumbuhan jumlah emiten yang terdaftar di BEI memang meningkat signifikan, tetapi jumlah investor yang terlibat di pasar modal relatif masih sedikit. Memang literasi keuangan masyarakat masih rendah, khususnya pasar modal di Indonesia. Menurut Kepala Pengawas Pasar Modal II OJK, Fahri Hilmi, saat ini jumlah investor yang tahu tentang pasar modal di bawah 4 persen dari total penduduk, yang investasi masih lebih rendah lagi. Data pusatis per Mei 2015, jumlah investor lokal hanya 488.248 atau kurang dari 1 persen penduduk Indonesia. Padahal rasio jumlah investor terhadap jumlah penduduk rata-rata di negara ASEAN sudah menyentuh level 30 persen. Kita masih tertinggal jauh.

Saat jumlah saham yang tercatat di BEI masih sedikit, mungkin relatif lebih mudah bagi kita untuk melihat faktor-faktor yang menyebabkan harga saham berubah. Tapi ketika jumlah perusahaan yang terdaftar dan kapitalisasi pasar terus berkembang, serta didorong dengan perkembangan teknologi. Tentu faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi harga saham juga terus berubah.

Dulu mungkin kita hanya mengkaitkan pergerakan harga saham dengan melihat faktor fundamental perusahaan tapi hari ini kita juga seperti didorong untuk melihat pengaruh investor asing, apalagi kepemilikan investor asing di pasar saham Indonesia terus meningkat dari waktu ke waktu. Menurut data Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia (KSEI), per Februari 2015 asing menguasai 64,3 persen saham publik di Indonesia, meningkat dibandingkan tahun 2012 sebesar 58,7 persen.

Faktor lain diluar fundamental perusahaan dan kepemilikan asing seperti behavioral finance mungkin harus dijadikan pertimbangan untuk pengambilan keputusan investasi, khususnya di pasar modal. Hhmm Jadi kepikiran dan penasaran untuk meneliti tentang sebenarnya faktor apa yang menjadi trigger utama penggerak harga saham dari tahun ke tahun. Apakah masih di dominasi oleh fundamental perusahaan,  kepemilikan investor asing, atau justru sudah berubah ke behavioral finance.

Semoga diberi kesempatan agar bisa menjawab pertanyaan ini dalam bentuk karya ilmiah.

Semoga dalam penulisannya nanti bisa dilakukan di negara yang memperkenalkan pasar modal pertama kali di dunia.

Semoga hasil tulisannya nanti bermanfaat untuk masyarakat Indonesia sehingga mereka tertarik untuk memulai investasi.

Aamiin Ya Robbal ‘Alamin.